Monday, January 31, 2011

World Economic Forum at Davos -2011

Please find a wonderful recap of the World Economic Forum, meet at Davos - 2011
2005 leaders,all at the same place and same time ideating about the world's future!

Thats what really makes World Economic forum click.

2010 WEF had a question -Would the global economy recover?
The 2011 WEF had the question"Is recovery real and stable?

Gerard Lyons: Cheif econmist - Standard Chartered - we are starting to see a supercycle!
Ist super cycle -  Emergence of America
IInd super cycle - Emergence of Japan

India China Indonesia and a host of nations needed to be talked about.

Governments vs Banks.
What saw the tussle between Sarkozy & Dimon from J.P.Morgan over the whole issue of regulation.

Shared norms for the new reality:
2 speed global economy, and to fend this there is a "Call for a Global Trade Pact" - especially by Pascal Lamy - the director of WTO.

Corporate India tried to push the Governance deficit , and a lot of discussion about inflation, Espeically food inflation. Food inflation a growing global concern.
A good point raised by Harish Manwani, President of Unilever ASIA was to address not just the short term issue of food inflation, but to solve the demand supply problem fundamentally. To holistically address the concerns of small farmer, water,climate change and Infrastructure.

Final word goes to George Soros(London school of Economics Alumni) Global warming translates to persistant high food prices. Droughts, Fires & Storms are a great danger to the world and not enough is being done to stop it, and is one of the most disturbing issues.

One thing that also clearly comes out of the meet is that India is making its presence felt, even if its with the contemporary Indain art on the latest meeting hall at Davos.

Peter Sands of Standard Chartered Bank
Single largest profit market for SCB in the world.
If you are not in India, you have missed the bus!

Google's Nikesh Arora - consumer pheonmenon has not taken off as well as it could have, perhaps due to the infrastructure. But is happy with the ramp up done by the telecom companies in putting up the infrastructure in place.

Time to loosen the purses - Melinda Gates Co-Chair Bill & Melinda Gates foundation.

Swiss banks to provide information of Black-money?

Nouriel Roubini Professor of Economics at NYU Stern and Robert Shiller, Professor of Economics at Yale University still seemed mildly concerned..both predicted the 2008 Crash. Especially Shiller, concerned about the US stock markets, the quick rebound would have an impact in the longer run and that crash would have a bigger impact on India. He infact could predict that the P/E ratio is quite high according to his calculations over a longer run,something which is not good for the markets.

A senario where FII inflows are more than FDIs Paul Fletcher, Senior Partner,Actis however bring some cheer by saying that Private Equity is willing to invest both in equity and infrastructure.

Stephen Schwarzman , Chairman & CEO Blackstone group, gives his perspective of the current happenings in India. How usually, growth brings with it inflation and with it the markets are toned down with a check on interest rates, and the markets somehow do not like that and they go down. Ending his note on a quote from  Shakespeare "one man's tragedy is another man's comedy"

30,000 foot high perspective of things!! Perspectives don't get better than that!!

Saturday, January 22, 2011

GMAT Duckworth Lewis method

     Today two things happened. Two very different things, but both of them very similar.I followed a cricket match cut short by rain, and I read the post of a forum member whose's GMAT was interrupted by a power breakdown.

     I read on the  BTG forums about one of the guys whose test was plagued with a power-cut and he settled for a score less than what he had imagined. I also was following a game of cricket between India and South Africa. The match was curtailed by a rain.I still don't know the result as I post this blog. {4 overs lost due to rain, match is reduced to 46 overs and the target is 260}However, I am sure that there would be a clear winner/loser thanks to a statistical method to figure out revised targets after an interruption. The Duckworth Lewis method or D/L method is a set of formulas and tables created by Frank Duckworth and Tony Lewis. The International Cricket Council (ICC) adopted this method to address the problem of delayed match for reasons of rain, poor light and floodlight failures although it has also been used in events that have been shortened due to crowd problem, sandstorms and even snowstorms.

As I still sit and ponder over the result of the match, I think it would not be counterintuitive to apply the D/L method for a GMAT test. After all the GMAT too scores statistically.

Getting into the theroy of the D/L, the essence are the 'resources'. Each team is taken to have two 'resources' to use to make as many runs as possible: the number of overs they have to receive and the number of wickets they have in hand.
Similarly for the GMAT, the essence are the "time left" and "questions left".

I do believe that there should be something to factor in for the poor guys, whose GMAT/game are interrupted! In the meanwhile I leave you with the D/L calculator and inspire a few to make such a calculator.
(If not for a real test, for practice with a shortened duration of test - planned or cut short by an official phone call or otherwise.)

P.S. I add this disclaimer that this post may not be taken seriously and its a pure co-incidence that I happened to see some relation between the two interruptions.(Also have posted links of the proof that it happened on the same day!)

Monday, January 17, 2011

Gandhi vs Luther ~ mastergmat vs gmatclubtest

Even as the world celebrates Gandhi Jayanti(Mahatma Gandhi's birthday) as International Non-Violence day,
If there was one leader who paralleled Gandhi in his non-violent ways, it was "Martin Luther King Jr"
Martin Luther King, Jr. Day is celebrated on the 3rd monday each January to mark the activist's birthday.
As a mark of respect to this noble soul has offered GMAT club tests free on January 17th
0:01 AM to 23:59, Pacific Time (USA)
With some calcluations I reach at 17th afternoon 1:31 pm IST when we are going to have free access to gmatclub tests.
(PST time zone is GMT-8) + IST is 5 1/2 hours ahead of GMT
so net effect is PST and IST have a time difference of 13 1/2 hours

In the mean while I still am in some dilemma, should I focus on gmatclub tests or should I continue with the free access to the course. I am thoroughly enjoying the course and have completed 55% of the verbal section and I am feeling a lot more confident.
Guys you are lucky as you are in not such a dilemma, and tomorrow will be an another day!!
Whereas I am left to choose between Mahatma Gandhi and Martin Luther King, Jr!!

Tuesday, January 4, 2011

Interesting B-School Statistics...

Interesting statistics!!
Infact you can create them at run time.

last but not the least... have a look at the B-School maps

Sunday, January 2, 2011

Virtual B-school tour!

 I was looking for an informal and indirect information about B-Schools.  The businessweek is a valuable source of information. I was particulary impressed by the virtual tours of schools which have been neatly segregated locationally:
MidAtlantic U.S.
MidWest U.S.
NorthEast U.S.
South U.S.
SouthWest U.S.
West U.S.
& International

Say for example I never knew that Baker Library at HBS is the largest business library in the world.
This weblink sure is informative..and this school IMPRESSIVE!!

Friday, December 31, 2010

The Economics of global warming & climate change!

     Way back in 1896 Svante Arrhenius, a Swedish scientist gave the greenhouse law:
"if the quantity of carbonic acid increases in geometric progression, the augmentation of the temperature will increase nearly in arithmetic progression."
Little did he know that the human growth story painted on the Global canvas, shall have far-reaching consequences. World Health Organization figures conclude that as many as 350,000 lives are being lost each year from climate impacts now, and shall rise to one million per year by 2030. The effects of this imbalance shall be on Food Supply,Health, Biodiversity & Extreme weather. Conflicts shall arise due to scarcity of water resources and large scale migration and Disease.

Of the 50 countries judged as "acutely vulnerable" include many of the world's poorest, including Burma, Bhutan, Bangladesh, Niger and Senegal. Needless to say China and United States the most developed countries are the biggest emitters of greenhouse gases.
I think it was time when the BIG guys took some responsibility and the Cancun summit just did that.

     Its less than a month past since the UN climate change conference at Cancun,Mexico concluded.
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, concludes an yearly event where all nations of the world meet to make some headaway.Many of you might have got the highlights of the draft decision at the meet from local/international media, and how much is IN there for your respective country!
     Well this is the link to the real stuff: "Outcome of the work of the Ad Hoc Working Group on long-term Cooperative Action under the Convention."

A brief of the highlights are: 
  • Guidance/policy/incentives on reducing emissions from deforestation, conservation & sustainable management of forests and enhancement of forest carbon stocks in developing countries.
  • Body for Scientific & Technological Advice work on issues relating to reducing emissions from deforestation.
  • The Green Climate Fund intended to raise and disburse $100bn a year by 2020 to protect poor nations against climate impacts and assist them with low-carbon development.
  • Composition and mandate of an elected Technology Executive Committee.
Also simply to say "There's enough in it that we can work towards next year's meeting in South Africa to get a legally binding agreement there." (Tara Rao, senior policy adviser with environmental group WWF )

     For all of you those who were not aware of such a meet or were too caught up in something more important, let me tell you one thing:

     All the awareness about which I am talking about is not about painting our desks green or about holding a banner that we need to do more, its not even about making adjustments in everyday life such as using public transport and wearing a sweater rather than turning on the heating or about suggesting that the Second World War concept of rationing be practiced as Professor Kevin Anderson, Director of the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research suggests. But its about developing,nurturing and fostering a new economy,a new lifestyle and a new world based on Clean Development mechanism.
Its about learning and imbibing the Economics of Global Warming.To try fill in the knowledge/technological/political/economic gaps by taking a risk or else paying a price. And believe me there is a great career, growth, money,credit and a powerful life experience worth exploring!

And for each of us MBA aspirants...well there is decent list indicator words in italics, even if you don't think of the BIG PICTURE!
Further affirms

If the last century had a beginning in the two world wars, which changed the fortunes of few generations, many countries and countless people, we have something bigger, more challenging at hand. Let "the beacon of hope be reignited."